5/3/2023 0 Comments Toronto maple leafs![]() ![]() ![]() It could be a sloppy game offensively altogether with the changes for the Leafs and the schedule adjustments for the Islanders, but this Toronto team has not played great of late and has lucked out substantially with opposing goaltenders. Toronto has gotten a little shorter since opening at -120, and a lot of that could be because this will be the Islanders’ first game back from a West Coast trip. Ilya Sorokin has been one of the most stable goaltenders all season and if it weren’t for the Bruins, we’d be talking a lot more about the New York starter. This was already a team struggling to win possession and create chances and now Keefe has diluted the scoring talent up front even more. William Nylander has taken some heat from Keefe in the media and the coach has sent him to the third line with a questionable supporting cast. “He’s not skating to the same degree he was earlier in the season where he was a dominant player for us,” #Leafs’ Keefe says Nylander hasn’t been going to the net and also wants more from Tavares, leading line shuffle before the game against Ottawa. The head coach has also moved Mitch Marner away from Auston Matthews in an effort to get John Tavares going. Toronto will be without TJ Brodie and Luke Schenn on the blue line tonight, which hurts as the Islanders are a physical team (fifth in hits). Sheldon Keefe knows this and that's why he’s not exactly happy with the team despite the wins and has blown up the lines. Since March 1 - a stretch of nine games that include all of the Leafs’ deadline transactions - Toronto sits 27th in Corsi for percentage, 29th in expected goal percentage (xGoal%), dead last in high-danger chances for percentage (HDCF%), and 12th with an 11.11% shooting percentage. The Leafs have gone 5-4 SU this month, and although the wins have been nice, this team has not played well when looking at expected-goal metrics, quality-chance differential, shooting percentage, and Corsi numbers. Sign Up Now Maple Leafs vs Islanders moneyline analysis Looking to bet on some Leafs action? Join Sports Interaction, the best in Canada for new bettors. My best bet: Auston Matthews Under 4.5 shots ( -118 at SIA) Matthews at Under 4.5 shots at -118 is something I’m playing and hoping for better fortune than with my recent Toronto best bets. On the road, he averages a 13% shot share and is 8-7 to the Under on this prop since returning from injury, but that includes a better offensive situation than he'll see tonight. A 16% shot share is very high when considering his linemates, a possible reduction in ice time, and a tough/physical opponent. Couple that with the Maple Leafs struggling to win the possession game of late ranking in the Bottom 10 of the league in shots for percentage, Corsi percentage, and shot attempts this month, and I’m not confident they are going to be stuffing the boxscore.įive shots are a lot when the Leafs are projected for roughly 30 tonight. the Isles this season, but both of those games were on home ice with Marner on his wing.Īt home, only the Bruins allow fewer goals per game than New York, and a lot of that has to do with keeping opposing shots in check. Matthews is 1-1 O/U on his 4.5 shot market vs. opposing centers and rank fifth in that category. The Islanders are also a great shot-suppressing team vs. The move from Marner to Kerfoot is steep, and considering Keefe is spreading his scoring talent across three lines, perhaps Matthews won’t see 20 minutes tonight.Ībsent: Brodie David Alter March 20, 2023 Jarnkrok has a point in four straight games playing on the top line, but Marner needs a lot of credit for that. I think the biggest hit offensively will come to Auston Matthews, who loses his best winger in Mitch Marner and now will skate with Calle Jarnkrok and Alex Kerfoot. With all the line juggling the Leafs are doing, it’s creating some value in the NHL player props market. Maple Leafs vs Islanders picks and predictions Islanders in my NHL betting picks and predictions. The Buds are slight favorites tonight, but with Sheldon Keefe unhappy with the recent play and blowing up the lines, is there some value to be had in betting against the players most affected by the line changes?įind out my best bets for the Maple Leafs vs. a motivated New York Islanders team that is clinging to a playoff spot. Now they head to UBS Arena for a tough battle vs. The Toronto Maple Leafs have strung together back-to-back wins despite losing the metric battle, something that's been an issue all month.
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